311 years ago today, a so-called "great earthquake" struck the coastal region of the United States Pacific Northwest. Here's my post from last year explaining some of the details of why we think we know this; I'm not going to rewrite it here. However, this year's anniversary is somewhat special for another reason: Oregon conducted its first "shakeout" to encourage preparedness for the inevitable next great quake at 10:15 this morning.
I slept through it.
Unfortunately, metaphorically speaking, so did public awareness. @GlacialTill pointed out earlier that many members of his geology department weren't even aware of it. I was aware of it, and its coincidence with the anniversary, but it was sort of a peripheral awareness, something to which I wasn't paying attention. As I mentioned to him, this is our first such event, so expectations shouldn't be too high. On the other hand, I see my own complacent attitude toward the exercise as cautionary and a little shaming: if a person who is pretty well informed and concerned about this issue is essentially ignoring the shakeout, how can he expect that the general public will catch on? As it turns out, slightly more than 1% of Oregonians are reporting their participation.
So in the spirit of trying to do better next time, here are some links, resources and commentary. The official homepage is here, and the graphic at the bottom claims "Over 37,000 participants." Of particular interest to me are the instructions for how to react at the onset and for the duration of a quake (and the page upon which these instructions are apparently based, with more detail and explanation).
Unfortunately, I think the biggest failure during this first attempt was the lack of media coverage. As I commented to GlacialTill, I remember quite a few cursory articles last fall when the drill was announced. I thought about writing up a post then, but decided to wait until it was closer with the assumption I would be reminded by news releases. I know I've seen at least one article on the event during the last week, but I can't find it now. An article from KVAL (which I do skim over) shows up in Google- though not my RSS- but the link goes to a generic search page with no results. There have been a few articles and press releases, but not in places where I might have seen them without an intentional search. For example, despite my general contempt for press releases, this one at Newswire is very well done, in my opinion. (Oregon State University source is apparently here, with some links I haven't followed yet.) This one, from Portland's Fox affiliate, is shallow and cursory, but at least it's something. A brief at Medford's News Tribune notes the event... in this morning's edition. This seems like a day late to me, at least, but again, it's something.
I don't want to point fingers here- I think it would be wrong-headed and counterproductive. Further, as I implied above, I do not hold myself unaccountable. Between one route and another, I estimate I get somewhat fewer than a thousand readers a day. This is certainly a situation where a trivial amount of effort on my own part could have- likely would have- made a significant and substantive difference. The Medford article claims that 24,000 participants were anticpated, so the actual number tallied thus far- which may increase- is better than 50% higher than expected.
Still.
I don't think Oregonians, Washingtonians and British Columbians have fully grasped the disruption we're talking about here. Roads, water, power, airports, hospitals, food distribution and all sorts of other physical and social infrastructure that we take for granted are likely to be knocked out for weeks, or, at the very best, functioning at very low levels of efficiency. Are you ready for that? Have you really thought about what that means?
It could strike in the next few minutes. It might not strike within the lifetimes of children born today. We don't know. To say it becomes more likely as time goes on, I think, would be misleading: seismologists and structural geologists are constantly reassessing their understandings of how stress and strain are relieved and distributed at any given moment and through time. For example, the recently discovered "slow quakes" of the PNW (that article is also a pretty good back-grounder) are still mostly mysterious. Do they concentrate strain and make a great quake more likely, or relieve strain and make one less likely? We don't know.
Given the unknowns, the potential consequences, and relatively low hassle and cost of being prepared, it seems obvious to me that being prepared is clearly preferable. As I said in last year's post, there is some good news here. I don't feel bleak about the situation. But I do feel we could be doing better.
As I looked back over the above to proofread for obvious errors, one sentence jumped out at me: "This is certainly a situation where a trivial amount of effort on my own part could have- likely would have- made a significant and substantive difference." I earnestly hope and pray you don't recall that sentence as you huddle in the rubble with your family, wondering when help will arrive.
Followup: Glacial Till, a geology student in Portland, and About.com Geology (Andrew Alden) have posted on The Shakeout as well. Both mention, as I forgot to, that British Columbia also conducted a shakeout. Glacial Till notes that the reported participation in BC is 460,000. Wikipedia says the population of that province is about 4.5 million, so that's a 10% participation rate, even though this is their first such event as well. C'mon, Oregon. We can do better. And Washington? You might want to come along next year.
Followup 2: I was half expecting this would get some after-the-fact coverage, despite there being effectively no coverage ahead of time. The Portland Tribune chimes in with the first such article I've seen, and I'll post any similar reports here as I come across them.
Showing posts with label Oregon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oregon. Show all posts
wallpaper Lotsa Water
I think Anne at Highly Allochthonous was the first to post this, along with some great discussion and explanatory hydrographs, but because RSS gives you the most recent articles first, I first saw it at KATU and OregonLive. The OL article has a more standard news perspective, if you're not into Anne's hydrogeological approach. KATU also has a story surveying tentative plans to restoring the wiped-out road, which no longer exists: the Sandy River is currently flowing where the road used to be. (Followup, 6:28- OregonLive also has a piece about reconstruction of the road, and an excellent aerial photo of the damage.)
Anne also mentions the February '96 floods, which I recall vividly. I was not out and about during those, though I did go downtown one afternoon to look at the water encroaching toward 2nd street, and it was not until mid-May when I found a field trip completely disrupted by washed out, debris-covered or severely damaged roads that I understood at a gut level how bad that set of floods had been. There are several areas in the Quartzville Creek drainage that I've been keeping a curious eye on for the last fifteen years, watching the recovery as plants have recolonized and various processes conspire to slowly hide the geological evidence of that mess.
As Anne correctly points out, last weekend's flood was not such a big deal- yes, it caused some local problems, and a number of people have lost possessions and homes, but no one was killed, and as far as I've seen no one was even hurt, though there may have been some discomfort when the power failed. As scary as the above footage is, in my mind, this was a good disaster: no casualties and awesome documentation. Another example of a good disaster was last year's volcanic eruption in Iceland. (No, I'm not going to look up, copy and paste its spelling.)
Other, much more seriously attention-deserving floods have occurred already in this young year, namely in Brazil and Australia. Today's Big Picture (The editor is moving on to another position, but says Boston.com's photo staff will continue the blog) showcases the Brazilian flooding and associated landslides/debris flows. And January 3rd, the same feature shared photos of the Australian floods. These two and other flood events (for example, "Sri Lanka, which suffered a 1-in-100 year flood this month.") are discussed in meteorological detail by Dr. Jeff Masters at his Wunderblog, who says
So yes, it has been a wet and mucky winter here in western Oregon, as was predicted when a La Nina developed in the second half of 2010. But overall, it could be a lot worse.
Followup: Heehee... just found this. Is it related enough? Sure, why not.
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see more Lolcats and funny pictures
Anne also mentions the February '96 floods, which I recall vividly. I was not out and about during those, though I did go downtown one afternoon to look at the water encroaching toward 2nd street, and it was not until mid-May when I found a field trip completely disrupted by washed out, debris-covered or severely damaged roads that I understood at a gut level how bad that set of floods had been. There are several areas in the Quartzville Creek drainage that I've been keeping a curious eye on for the last fifteen years, watching the recovery as plants have recolonized and various processes conspire to slowly hide the geological evidence of that mess.
As Anne correctly points out, last weekend's flood was not such a big deal- yes, it caused some local problems, and a number of people have lost possessions and homes, but no one was killed, and as far as I've seen no one was even hurt, though there may have been some discomfort when the power failed. As scary as the above footage is, in my mind, this was a good disaster: no casualties and awesome documentation. Another example of a good disaster was last year's volcanic eruption in Iceland. (No, I'm not going to look up, copy and paste its spelling.)
Other, much more seriously attention-deserving floods have occurred already in this young year, namely in Brazil and Australia. Today's Big Picture (The editor is moving on to another position, but says Boston.com's photo staff will continue the blog) showcases the Brazilian flooding and associated landslides/debris flows. And January 3rd, the same feature shared photos of the Australian floods. These two and other flood events (for example, "Sri Lanka, which suffered a 1-in-100 year flood this month.") are discussed in meteorological detail by Dr. Jeff Masters at his Wunderblog, who says
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center currently puts the La Niña event in the "strong" category, and whenever a La Niña or El Niño event reaches the strong category, major perturbations to global weather patterns occur. This typically results in record or near-record flooding in one or more regions of the globe.Still, keep in mind some aren't sharing in this hydrologic wealth. An article that I would have read but probably not mentioned here, if not for the fortuitous context in which to place it, notes Prineville's water woes. Prineville is in the center part of Oregon, on the other side of the Cascades, and thus in their rain shadow. Trying to infer between the lines of this article, it sounds as if the problem is more about the groundwater geology and conserving scarce surface water resources rather than simply the dry climate, but the community is bumping up hard against the water limit, whatever the cause. "The reason the city is so interested in developing better wells is because, as it stands now, the city does not have the capacity to serve its existing residents, Klann said."
So yes, it has been a wet and mucky winter here in western Oregon, as was predicted when a La Nina developed in the second half of 2010. But overall, it could be a lot worse.
Followup: Heehee... just found this. Is it related enough? Sure, why not.
wallpaper 
wallpaper Jaw Dropping
I am stunned to read that "There were 32 reported incidents at Portland International Airport last year in which the safety of planes was put at risk by people pointing at them with lasers." How do you explain that? I mean, I can see a few accidents, where someone inadvertently beams a plane, and the occasional crank/lunatic/sociopath, but seriously? Once every eleven days or so? There are dozens, even hundreds of passengers and crew on those things, and every one of them is put at risk. How, exactly, is it that there are people doing this, apparently for shits and giggles? And according to the article, PDX isn't even near the top of the list:
There 108 incidents at the Los Angeles airport last year, more than any other airport, FAA said. O'Hare was next, with 98, followed by airports in Phoenix and San Jose, Calif., both with 80; Las Vegas, 72; Philadelphia, 66; Oakland, Calif., 55; Honolulu, 47; San Francisco, 39; Denver and Newark, N.J., both 38; Tucson, Ariz., 37; Miami and Salt Lake City, both 36; Portland, Ore., and Ontario, Calif., both 32; Burbank, Calif., Orange County, Calif., and Baltimore, each 31, and Seattle, 26.I swear, my species makes me sick sometimes. Next time you feel inclined to flash a laser at a plane, do us all a favor and go play with some nitroglycerin in a remote open field instead.
wallpaper PC Versus AG
wallpaper One of these guys is John Hodgman, the PC guy. The other is Oregon's new Attorney General, John Kroger. Can you tell which is which? (Hint: I can't, either.)
wallpaper Hmmm... Tropical Paradise
wallpaper As predicted, after some brief flurries yesterday afternoon, it switched over to rain and warmed up over night. It feels positively balmy out there today, and I'm loving it! According to WeatherUnderground, our average high for today is 46, so we are warmer than normal, but we've hardly been breaking freezing for what feels like weeks. I'm pretty certain it hasn't actually been that long, but it feels like it. So at least in contrast today's moderate temperature feels simply tropical, and my poor aching feet are feeling very comfortable, thank you.
wallpaper Spoiled Meat?
Feed it to prisoners! (Something about killing two birds with one stone here)
wallpaper Santa Visited Newberb, Oregon!
I just checked NORAD's Santa Tracker a few minutes ago, and Santa visited Newberg! That's just between here and Portland! Wait, what? No, I guess that's Newberb. Never mind.
wallpaper Well, even if NORAD and Google can't spell, have a great one, folks.
wallpaper Well, even if NORAD and Google can't spell, have a great one, folks.
wallpaper Being Careful What I Wish For
wallpaper On Saturday, I expressed some regret that the weather wasn't as "vigorous" as I had been led to believe it would be. Turns out it was much, much wetter farther north, with local flooding in Washington state, as well as problems in the Portland area, and landslides and road closures all over the place. We had unusually warm weather Saturday through yesterday, then last night a cold front moved through. A bit after noon today, Aumsville, Oregon got whacked.
wallpaper What a mess. Tornadoes do occur in western Oregon, but they're pretty rare, averaging about one a year. They also tend to be less powerful than the monsters of the plains states and the Midwest. But I'm sure that's small consolation to the people who now need to figure out how to cope with this chaos in the middle of the Holiday season.
wallpaper Traffic Hazard: Wildlife
wallpaper A sea lion decided to take a scenic drive on Route 101 near Yachats yesterday. I had read about this earlier, but I enjoy the photo. Ahh, the stuff we have to endure in this silly state.
wallpaper Rain
It has barely been drizzling today, though it has been raining heavily further north, and I understand Portland is having problems with street flooding and blocked drains.
I have mixed feelings about this: I enjoy vigorous weather, and we don't get all that much of it here in western Oregon. On the other hand, floods can be a royal pain, or much worse. Probably the greatest danger in my neighborhood comes from landslides and debris flows. While here on the valley floor such mass movement isn't an issue, you don't have to go far from where I'm sitting to find places where it would be a serious concern and real danger. And it's not as if, as I said earlier, we have been particularly lacking in the precipitation department recently.
Still, I had my expectations for a roaring downpour, and I can't help but feel a little disappointed. I have a feeling that Randall Munroe at xkcd can relate.
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