Showing posts with label Earth. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Earth. Show all posts

wallpaper How Much is a Planet Worth?

Gliese 581 c: $160
Mars: $14,000
Earth: $Lotsa!

From BoingBoing:
Our planet's value emerged as nearly 5 quadrillion dollars. That's about 100 times Earth's yearly GDP, and perhaps, Laughlin thought, not a bad ballpark estimate for the total economic value of our world and the technological civilization it supports.
I find this kind of amazing, that one can simply plug in numbers regarding physical characteristics of a planet- quantities that don't, on the face of it, seem to have much to do with economic value- and get something that seems like a plausible estimation of the "worth" of the planet. $14,000 seems like a low value for Mars, to me, but I suspect that's at least in part because I think about its potential future value, not its value in terms of today's ability to utilize it.

The interview portion of the article goes into some detail of how the equation was pieced together, and helps clarify how this works. Still wondering about magnets and tides, though.

wallpaper Extreme Hikes at Extreme Heights

I've posted an older video of El Camino (Caminito) Del Rey before, but this one, from last year, is almost twice as long, and every bit as gut wrenching:

By the way, I just realized that the "old" (i.e. "functional") embed code is still available at YouTube; I'll be going back and fixing Saturd80's in a bit.

The hiking trails at China's Mount HuaShan are in far better repair, but I have enough acrophobia that I still wouldn't be able to cope.

In both cases, I'd dearly love to visit these spots: the landscapes and rocks are beautiful. But I get queasy just looking at the clips. I know for a fact I'd be utterly paralyzed if I went there in person. On a positive note, according to the Wikipedia page (link above) for El Caminito Del Rey,
The regional government of Andalusia budgeted in 2006 for a restoration plan estimated at € 7 million.

The President of Malaga Provincial Government, Salvador Pendon, announced that the budget to restore the three-kilometre walkway is €8.3m, financed by the provincial government.

The project will take approximately three years from when it is due to start in mid-2011.
So apparently, in the not-too-distant future it will be possible for humans who aren't part mountain goat, part spider to enjoy this trail once again. I, on the other hand, will most likely stick to gentler landscapes.

wallpaper Cycles Without End

Note: January 31- This wedge has been accreted at Mountain Beltway. Lots and lots of geo-themed goodies to check out and drool over. Take a look!

The theme for this month's Accretionary Wedge (#30), hosted by Callan Bentley, is "Bake Sale."
I hereby challenge my fellow geobloggers (and any newbies who want to participate) to explore the interconnections between geology and food. This can take any form you want, but I’m really hoping for some edible, geologically accurate models.
I'm actually fairly proficient in the kitchen, and I particularly love the alchemy that is baking: there is something magical (more about my use of that particular word later) about starting with an inedible white powder, and ending up with bread, pastries, cake or cookies. But lack of funds and difficulty getting to the grocery store makes it effectively impossible for me to actually create something of my own. (On the other hand, I have posted a number of these sorts of things other people have created in the past; my favorite is here.)

So instead of another geocake- believe me, there are some really nice ones lined up- I've decided to focus more literally on "the interconnections between geology and food." When you're finished with this post, you will have not only (I hope) a better understanding of how baked goods are created, but a fun activity to do with students that helps drive home the deep connection between the non-living earth and its inhabitants. It probably won't be obvious where I'm going at first, but bear with me.wallpaper wallpaper (Elemental calcium from Wikipedia) Above is a test tube of calcium (Ca). For each of the elements I mention here, I will introduce it by name, follow it by its symbol, then stick mostly with the symbol or a compound name afterward. If the sample above was not enclosed in a test tube, it would react quickly with the atmosphere to form an earthy coating of oxides and nitrides. I don't know if calcium is available to the general public in the US, but it is readily available to classroom teachers and not too expensive.
SAFETY: CaO and the Ca[OH]2 solution are moderately caustic. Goggles should be worn, and for younger S's, you might want to consider latex/neoprene/plastic gloves. Students (S's) should be instructed to quickly wash off any skin contacts with either material, and to clean up any spills. These materials are pretty mild, as caustics go, but prolonged contact can cause chemical burns, and eye contact should be taken quite seriously- rinse for several minutes, and at a minimum, call for medical advice, though an ER visit would most likely not be necessary. H2 generated is flammable, and in large amounts, explosive, but in a decently ventilated space, and lacking ignition sources, this shouldn't be an issue.
So to start, place a small amount of Ca- a few grams- into a beaker or flask, then add water, let's say 50-75 ml. Calcium reacts quickly (though gently) with water to create hydrogen (H- in the real world, this exists as the diatomic molecule H2) and calcium hydroxide (also called "slaked lime," Ca[OH]2, where O is oxygen). The hydrogen can be harvested and used for other purposes, but that is beyond my scope here. The real goal here is to get that Ca[OH]2 solution, and a cheaper way, realistically, is simply to dissolve lime (CaO) in water. As it happens though, it's always been more convenient to use Ca, which has been available in every classroom I've worked, than lime, which is very inexpensive, but generally comes in unusable amounts (100 pound bags), and has never been laying around for me to use. A solution of calcium hydroxide is called, colloquially and archaically, "lime water."

After a few minutes, the Ca will fully react and quit bubbling off H2, and what remains will be a cloudy suspension of Ca[OH]2 precipitate and solution. Place a filter paper in a funnel, and filter the mixture into an Erlenmeyer flask to remove the lime precipitate. The resulting supernatant should be more or less clear, but a small amount of cloudiness is unimportant. (Alternatively, simply letting the mixture settle for a while will allow you to pour or siphon off a clear portion of the solution, but this may not be practical in the time-limited classroom setting. Also, the teacher can simply prepare sufficient solution for classroom use ahead of time.)

If you followed the link to lime water above, you now know that this solution can be used as a test for carbon (C) dioxide, CO2. In fact, if you let it sit undisturbed and exposed to air, it will develop a thin crystalline crust as it reacts with CO2 in the atmosphere. But we're going to use a more concentrated source of that gas- ourselves.

Using a straw, exhale through the solution. Using Erlenmeyer flasks, with their constricted tops, helps to minimize splashing. Placing a piece of paper over the mouth of the flask can also help catch splashes, and as I mentioned earlier, S's should wear goggles. The solution will quickly turn cloudy, but continue blowing through it for several minutes. Keep in mind, the point is simply to expose the solution to CO2, not to make it as explosively splashy as possible (which some students will endeavor to do). The latter can also lead to hyperventilation and is a bad idea.
wallpaper wallpaper When exposed to CO2, clear limewater turns milky- image from chem.wis.edu.

The precipitate that results from blowing through the lime water is CaCO3, or calcite. While technically not a mineral (see my discussion of what does and doesn't constitute a mineral here) because we created it, and thus it's technically not "natural," for most purposes we can consider this to be the same as micrite, or limy mud, which most often forms in calcium carbonate-saturated, warm, marine environments. Now, to me at least, there is something very amazing- I'm hesitant to use the word "magical," which connotes a very pleasurable state of mind to me, but holds a different meaning to most people, and one I don't intend- about this "artificial micrite." Those tiny mineral grains were, only a few moments earlier, alive! And not just alive, but me! What just came out of my lungs is instantly, "magically," a sediment on a tropical sea floor! I hope this excitement is not uniquely mine, because this intimate relationship between myself and natural earth processes is at the heart of my love of geology. It's certainly not the only thing there, but it is one of the central attachments.

Next step: either filter off the CaCO3, or allow it to settle (which may take 5-10 minutes, I don't remember exactly, but it's not too long) and pour off the supernatant. The goal here is to isolate and concentrate the precipitate, and how that's done is not important. Once you have the isolated precipitate, add a drop or few of acid: 0.1 M HCl, if you have it, but vinegar will work fine too. The acid test for calcite, if positive, will yield fizzing CO2, as the CaCO3 reacts to give a Ca salt, water, and CO2 gas. Again, the CO2 gas from acidifying your "micrite" is pretty special: a very short time ago it was tied up in cells all over your body. You are seeing a component of cellular waste that you rarely think about, and almost never directly perceive (unlike urine, for example).wallpaper wallpaper Calcite reacts with acid to form CO2, from About.com Geology

So, I hear you pleading, what in gawd's name does this have to do with baking? Well, it's that carbonate component, which within the limits imposed by typing, I'll designate --CO3: a carbonate ion with a minus 2 charge. There are unleavened breads- flour-based foods that have no component that causes them to rise- but these tend to be leathery or, if thick, downright brick-like. They are generally considered to be less desirable than leavened breads (though I have to admit, I'm a fan of crackers and lebkuchen). Yeast breads get their rise from cellular wastes of the yeast cells- again, carbon dioxide gas. But the majority of flour-based food we think of as cake and pastry have as their leavening agent sodium (Na) bicarbonate, NaHCO3. Cookie recipes often call for baking soda- which is sodium bicarbonate. The heat causes basically the same decomposition as the acid does for our calcite, but more slowly and more gently, giving leavened cookies a little loft and making them softer.

More bready, cakey pastries often call for baking powder, which are mixtures of sodium bicarbonate and temperature/moisture activated acids. From the wikilink:
Common low-temperature acid salts include cream of tartar and monocalcium phosphate (also called calcium acid phosphate). High-temperature acid salts include sodium aluminum sulfate, sodium aluminum phosphate, and sodium acid pyrophosphate
Why didn't I base this activity around sodium carbonate/bicarbonate rather than calcium carbonate? It would involve NaOH, which is seriously caustic, and something I prefer not to mess with if there are sensible alternatives. Further, as I tried to express above, there is something awesome and mesmerizing to me about seeing a mineral that was only moments ago part of my own metabolism. This is a critical understanding of the sciences generally, and geology specifically: life is of the earth. We have no constituent components that were not originally unliving. The food we eat, the air we breathe, and the water we drink, we think of these as separate from ourselves, but fundamentally ours. From the perspective of the planet, though (and granting that in any real sense, "the perspective of the planet" is a nonsensical phrase), those components are not separate, and they fundamentally belong to the earth more than they belong to us. We are granted the privilege of using them for a short time.

How many times, on average, has each carbon atom in the earth's near-surface cycled from the non-living lithosphere, atmosphere or hydrosphere into a living organism and back out to the non-living earth? I don't doubt that people far more competent than I have struggled to find meaningful and accurate estimates for this question. But I'm content to settle for the somewhat flippant answer "lotsa." And carbon is just one element- albeit the most important- among quite a number that are also biologically important. Every other element mentioned in this post, Ca, H, O, Na, and even Cl (chlorine) would be considered biologically important: life as we know it couldn't function without them. Along with carbon, each of those elements goes through its own cycles, its own set of reservoirs, of uses and transformations from non-living to living and back again.

And every time you take a bite of cake, and sigh blissfully, the cycle repeats once again.

wallpaper Life on Palette Earth

wallpaper wallpaper Dark Roasted Blend has a gorgeous gallery of art on a planetary scale. At one level, I find this disturbing and silly- a similar act to the one above in Oregon's Alvord desert a decade or so ago was treated like environmental vandalism. At another level, though, I have to say it's kind of impressive.

wallpaper Sand Through the Hourglass: Bits of Geoscience

I'm feeling pretty uninspired. Between staying up too late reading (for several nights running) and what might be a mild cold- which may or may not be part and parcel with the weird, mild headaches that make me feel as if my skull is deforming like a kneaded lump of clay- I just want to go home and go to bed. But I have a backlog of interesting geology and earth science posts I've been meaning to get to, plus a couple more that came up today, so with a minimum of fuss here are some recent bits from the geoblogosphere and related news.
  • Silver Fox spent much of the weekend tracking down the original Dutton quote poetically describing Basin and Range as an army of caterpillars crawling north out of Mexico. Like Ron Schott, I'm most familiar with this from the sign at Dante's View in Death Valley, but this has clearly been misquoted many more times than quoted.
  • Callan has a slew of mashed-up rocks (what I personally think of as metacrappite, in my own mental categorization of rock groups, without the slightest bit of derogatory intent), in his continuing series on the geology of San Francisco. Also check out the mashed cherts; these are some of the hardest and most competent sedimentary rocks that exist, and to see them folded, spindled and mutilated like taffy should give you a profound respect for the power of the earth.
  • Christmas day's EPOD was a stereopair of a beautiful snowflake. I've been meaning to transform this into a wobble-gif, but haven't got to it. I may not. Like I said at the outset...
  • Cian at Point Source summarizes her highlights from the recent AGU conference. I'm intrigued by the emphasis I've seen, and not only in her post, on scientists taking a lead role in communicating on their disciplines. As I and numerous others have repeatedly noted, the journalists just aren't getting it done.
  • Evelyn at Georneys has a wonderful post about a wonderful map. As familiar as this beautiful bit of cartographic art is to me, I had never realized its importance, nor how recently (alright, okay, I get it, I'm old.) it had been completed. Heartfelt thanks for clarifying, Evelyn.
  • Bryan at Hot Topic summarizes a recent interview of James Hansen by Bill McKibben, highlighting the degree of confidence felt among climate scientists regarding global warming, its consequences, and how to ameliorate its effects.
  • NatGeo has a gallery of images of what are thought to be collapse pits over lava tubes... on Mars.
  • The Guardian has the most complete article I've seen on the reopening of Molycorp's Mountain Pass rare earths mine.
  • In a semi-related bit of economic news, Krugman's column today deals with rising commodity prices in a recovering economy, on a finite planet. As I've noted before, geology and economics are much more intimately related than I think most people recognize.
  • Also at The Guardian, an article that largely dismisses concerns over the recent news about Cr VI in US drinking water. He makes some valid points, and in my reading, I had already come to much the same conclusion- that the panicky reaction was overblown. However, I think the middle ground is more appropriate here. There's no reason to panic, but his level of dismissiveness is unwarranted as well. This should be of concern, and should be studied more carefully.
  • Louisiana will be coming to Oregon to study hurricane storm surges. Huh? Oregon State University has one of the largest wave tanks in the world: The Hinsdale Wave Research Laboratory.
  • The explosion and subsequent destruction of the Deepwater Horizon, and the ensuing oil spill, made the new chairman of The House Science and Technology Committee, Ralph Hall (R-Texas), feel all warm and fuzzy inside.
    "As we saw that thing bubbling out, blossoming out – all that energy, every minute of every hour of every day of every week – that was tremendous to me," he said. "That we could deliver that kind of energy out there – even on an explosion."
    You probably don't want to read that entire article if you would prefer to be optimistic regarding science in the US in the near future.

wallpaper Santibar

wallpaper wallpaper When I checked in at NORAD's Santa Tracking page a few minutes ago, he was at Zanzibar, Tanzania. Happy Christmas Eve, all.

wallpaper The Age of The Earth

When I talk about my age, or my birthday, or similar topics, I have a base line of a documented day I was born and started breathing the atmosphere. When we talk about the age of a tree, we may be talking about a known planting date or the number of annual growth rings counted near the base. For a manufactured item, it might be known from its container, or make and model from a car, and can often be inferred at least approximately from stylistic changes through the years. In each case, there is a particular point in time that we consider a starting point: birth, first growth, manufacturing.

With something like an entire planet, it gets a little more complicated.

There's a new geotweep, Geologic Time, who is planning to tweet our planet's history as it would occur over the course of time if its ~4.54 billion years were compressed into one calendar year. I signed up to follow the other day because it sounds like a fun exercise and because while, yes, I know a great deal about earth history, I expect there will be any number of facts and tidbits that are new to me.

So when Geologic Time tweeted earlier (in a piece that has now apparently been taken down) that the proto-earth was currently in the process of accretion- planetesimals and rocky material falling together to form the young planet- I tweeted back asking "So what defines when protoplanet becomes 'Earth?'" In other words (I meant) what was the moment, event, or datum of some kind, that geoscientists use to say, "Before this point, it was proto-earth; after this point it was earth." Because there has to be a starting point, right?

Well, the short answer appears to be, "No, not exactly." The accretion process was messy and hot. The proportion of radionuclides- which decay and release more heat- was much higher than today. So there are no datable rocks from our planet's earliest history, and thus nothing on our planet that can be dated. The oldest known rocks are about 4 billion years old, and the oldest known mineral grains are detrital zircons from the Jack Hills of Australia, at about 4.4 billion years. The latter value represents an absolute minimum age for the earth.

My assumption had been that there had been more work done with the lunar samples. I know a lot of work and analysis has been done with those over the last 25 years, and I haven't followed it very carefully. I was also quite aware that the precision of radiometric dating had improved a great deal during that interval. As it turns out though, the planetary midnight of 1/1 is still the same as it was when I was a student: the age of the material that created the earth. Meteorites. I've been reading a bit on this topic since it came up this morning, and I'm not going to go into great detail, but essentially, we have the lower bound of about 4.4 billion years and an upper bound of meteorite ages of about 4.55 billion years. The earth had to have formed between those two times.

Wikipedia did offer one bit of information that was new to me, though. "Nevertheless, ancient Archaean lead ores of galena have been used to date the formation of Earth as these represent the earliest formed lead-only minerals on the planet and record the earliest homogeneous lead-lead isotope systems on the planet. These have returned age dates of 4.54 billion years with a precision of as little as 1% margin for error." So there are two independent and consistent paths that get us to the currently accepted age: meteorites and Archaean galena. One particularly interesting inference that I'm tentatively drawing from all this is that the time from protoplanetary disk to fully accreted planets must have been quite short in the grand scheme of things- maybe ten million to a hundred million years, tops.

The two links included above are both to Wikipedia, but two other sites I found particularly informative were Talk Origins, which appears to be primarily to provide ammunition for those refuting young-earthers, and Palaeos.com, The Hadean Age. The latter provides a description and discussion of what happened when during the first eon of the planet's history, and why we think so. From a distance of billions of years, it makes for fascinating and exciting reading, but I'm glad I wasn't there for it. Both have references from as recently as 2007, so while they may not be utterly current, they have definitely helped me come more up to date than I was a few hours ago.

wallpaper The War On Christmas

wallpaper wallpaper This topic is, for the most part, one that strikes me as inconsequential and frankly, annoyingly distracting. Celebrate Christmas- or whatever holiday(s)- in the manner that works for you and yours, and let others do the same. However, this post by "Dr. Science" at Obsidian Wings struck me as both amusing and interesting:
I recall being taught that one reason Washington attacked on Christmas was specifically because (English) American colonists didn't celebrate the holiday. The German Hessian mercenaries did, though, and so would be hung over and vulnerable when Washington and his army made their surprise attack. In other words, at the time of the Revolution Christmas was unAmerican.
There is also some discussion of how our so-called "religious" holidays at this time of year are for the most part usurpations of previously-existing pagan holidays around the solstice, with their symbologies and traditions left largely intact, but with a new narrative superposed.

So again, axial tilt is the reason for the season, but whatever it is you care to celebrate during these shortest days of the year, it's all good as far as I'm concerned. Enjoy the season and the longer days to come.

wallpaper Goings On In The Sky

wallpaper wallpaper I've been seeing solstice blessings going around, so I thought I'd check to make sure I knew when the moment was before I jumped in. According to Infoplease, "The precise moment of the 2010 solstice will be Dec. 21, 2010, 6:38 PM EST (23:38 UT)." So it's actually tomorrow afternoon, but close enough.

Of course the other thing to watch for tonight is the lunar eclipse. Nat Geo is making a fuss over the fact it is the first to fall on the day of the solstice in 372 years. OregonLive has a nice article that gets the details for those who want to watch:
North and Central America should be able to view the entire show, which is expected to last 3 1/2 hours if skies are clear. Total eclipse begins at 11:41 p.m. PST Monday or 2:41 a.m. EST Tuesday. The totality phase -- when the moon is entirely inside Earth's shadow -- will last a little over an hour.
Also, according to that article, OMSI is hosting a viewing party from 9:30 PM to 1:00 AM on the OMSI plaza. So if you're in the Portland area, I'm sure they'll have interpreters to help explain what you're seeing and why for the curious. And of course Bad Astronomer Phil Plait has a good write up, with a spectacular photo montage and a diagram showing how the phenomenon works.

However, a couple of days ago I remarked to someone that here on the west side of the Cascades, we are pretty much exempt from astronomy from the late fall to the early spring. About the only astronomical activity we could expect to witness (other than a slight brightening in the morning) is a catastrophic meteorite impact, and we're not scheduled for one of those anytime soon, so far as I've been informed. Which is fine by me. According to NOAA/NWS our forecast for tonight is "A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33." Cold and dreary... I'll step out a few times to see what I can see, but I won't be spending any major portion of the night outdoors. The clouds thin and break often enough that I'll probably get to see glimpses, but unlike the August 2007 lunar eclipse, this one isn't all that promising.

wallpaper Nature

News item: The Cancun Climate Conference has wound up, and some sources are trying to paint smiley faces on the fact that we've agreed to agree on ...something ...sometime.
"It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever..."
The quote is from The Terminator, of course, but it could apply just as well to the natural world. That doesn't mean it should necessarily be feared, but respected. It doesn't mean that its endless beauty shouldn't be appreciated, just that it doesn't care if we do or not, and that its just as "happy" with "ugly" as "beautiful." Our values don't apply.

And if we in our greed throw a wrench into its workings, it will have no more regrets than the T-800 about ripping our arms out of their sockets and beating us to death with them. Keep that in mind.

wallpaper Twelve-One

wallpaper wallpaper 55 years ago, an unassuming woman refused to give up her seat on a bus. The first volley in the modern civil rights movement had been fired. (Quote below from Campanastan, with the further note, "...her refusal to surrender her seat ignited the Montgomery Bus Boycott, which lasted over a year and left the public transit system with a crippling financial deficit.")
"People always say that I didn't give up my seat because I was tired, but that isn't true. I was not tired physically, or no more tired than I usually was at the end of a working day. I was not old, although some people have an image of me as being old then. I was forty-two. No, the only tired I was, was tired of giving in."-- Rosa Parks, in Rosa Parks: My Story (1992)
Another notable item from today's anniversaries came when I was very nearly two months old: via the NYT, "On Dec. 1, 1959, representatives of 12 countries, including the United States, signed a treaty in Washington setting aside Antarctica as a scientific preserve, free from military activity." In many ways, this can be seen as merely symbolic. On the other hand, this treaty has endured for 51 years now, and has for the most part been respected. Given the cynicism and despair with which I regard humanity's awareness of and respect for our basic life support system, I can still muster a bit of hope when I witness such an enormous expanse of potential resources- and potential enrichment- set aside for scientific purposes. There is hope for a species and culture that has the awareness to say "We don't really understand this. Maybe we shouldn't mess with it for the time being."

This is World AIDS Day. (Note that the link is to the first page of several; click the "next" button for more.) I remember when the condition that came to be called AIDS was first getting a lot of attention: it was pretty scary. It was also one of the events that spurred reflection on my unthinking homophobia: I was stunned and quite upset when a person who I respected, admired, and frankly, had a bit of a crush on- despite the fact she was married- said she thought it was a perfectly natural response to an unnatural behavior. If gays were going to have unnatural sex, nature would respond by creating a way to wipe them out. First, "nature" and evolution don't work that way. To assume that the natural world has a "purpose" is the first step in concluding that you are that purpose- the self-centric, or anthropocentric universe, so to speak. Secondly, in a world populated with so many sociopaths, those who see no further than their own ends regardless of what those ends cost others, to assume that "nature" is going to go out of its way to punish and exterminate those whose sex lives you disapprove of strikes me as repellant. Other people's sex lives have no effect on mine; why shouldn't nature kill off bankers and other con artists, whose shenanigans really have hurt me? Answer: nature and evolution don't work that way.

At any rate, while the news could certainly be better, most of items I'm seeing on AIDS today are pretty positive. Even articles that are attempting to take a hard, realistic look at the costs- both human and economic- of this epidemic seem curiously positive and optimistic. Though again, this is not to say the costs, as horrific as they are, are no longer worth worrying over.

Today is also the first day of Hanukkah. As I commented on FaceBook last night, "Yeah, I'm a non-believer. But as we start this season of gloom and cold, I wish joy and contentment for all my brothers and sisters, regardless of their faiths or lack thereof."

So the take-away message for this first day of the last month of the first decade of this new millennium is one that I would hope we can celebrate every day: empathy, compassion, and as hard as it may be for me to actually practice it, optimism.

wallpaper "No One Could Have Anticipated..."

The go-to phrase for the new millennium.
  • No one could have anticipated Bin Laden was determined to strike inside the US
  • No one could have anticipated New Orleans was so vulnerable to a major hurricane- though my first-term geo prof spent 10-15 minutes discussing said vulnerability... lecturing in Oregon, not the southeast... in 1981.
  • No one could have anticipated attempting to privatize social security would drive down the ratings of the president trying to do so.
  • No one could have anticipated deregulating banks, investment firms and insurance companies would lead to fraudulent lending, use of the loans as investments, and overconfident insurance of those investments, leading to an economic crisis.
  • No one could have predicted that reneging on numerous campaign promises and continuing policies created by a deeply unpopular predecessor would tarnish the glow of a promising new president.
  • No one could have anticipated...
Yada, yada, yada, I could continue this list for the better part of the day and still have examples left. But the one I wanted to get to was this:
  • No one could have anticipated that not enforcing safety regulations, administering agencies tasked with enforcement with members of the regulated industries, and allowing lobbying for exemptions by the same industries, in a potentially phenomenally dangerous and destructive activity could lead to, well, phenomenal destruction.
Via NYT's Green Blog:
“The containment story thus contains two parallel threads,” the commission staff wrote in a summary passage in their 39-page reconstruction of the four-month effort to kill the Macondo well. “First, on April 20, the oil and gas industry was unprepared to respond to a deepwater blowout, and the federal government was similarly unprepared to provide meaningful supervision.

“Second, in a compressed time frame, BP was able to design, build and use new containment technologies, while the federal government was able to develop effective oversight capacity. Those impressive efforts, however, were made necessary by the failure to anticipate a subsea blowout in the first place,” the report concluded.

Headline, 2040: "No one could have anticipated the drastic sea-level rise and increasing severity of extreme weather events."

Yeah, no one could have anticipated. Shame, that.